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GlobalBlock Weekly Brief 17th September

BTC Price: $6,482

Last 7 days:  3.8% MTD:  -1.1% YTD:  82.8%
In the last week BTC’s price has been stable. Between Monday and Thursday last week BTC traded between $6,231-$6,324. By Friday we saw positive price movements as high as $6,517 and appears to be its current upper resistance level.

BTC is currently trading just below this level and we feel this price point could be broken should bulls start entering the market. This is justified by BTC being oversold with its 50 SMA at $6,882. This is further justified by BTC’s price not far off its 100 SMA at $7,192. Should positive price action push BTC to hit $6,600, then we feel a price point of $7,100 will be the next level.

All of which means that we see support of $6,000 and bar any major news we feel this level should hold in the short term.

BTC trading volume:

10th September:   $4,429,993,730  (price of BTC $6,292)
17th  September:  $4,686,665,016  (price of BTC $6,497)

5.48% increase in trading volume in the past 7 days

ETH Price: $216

Last 7 days 10.2% MTD -31.4% YTD -13.5%

Ethereum had another turbulent week with many fearing just how bad Ether’s price can get. On Monday, ETH was trading at $200, and in the early hours of Wednesday dropped to as low as $169, however as the day progressed bulls started entering the market and a positive price rally quickly followed.  This saw ETH’s price point break the $200 mark to hit highs of $226. 

Our view is that ETH price could come under further pressure in line with long term trend indications with a strong level of resistance around the $260 level.

Split of Overall Market Cap (Dominance)

BTC 54.8%
ETH 10.8%

Other Alt-Coins 34.4%

Past Week Talking Points:

  • Newly released stable coin Gemini dollar will have the authority embedded in its smart contracts that allow it to freeze transactions it deems as fraudulent or malicious. Not exactly what you call decentralised but in order to comply with regulators- necessary.
  • VC investor Tim Drapper predicts that the crypto market cap will hit $80 trillion.
  • BTC’s hash rate has now doubled, i.e the time it takes to work out its Proof of Work algorithm. Meaning on average it cost $7,300 to mine 1 BTC.
  • Mt Gox to pay back its original investors a sum of 160,000 BTC, meaning potentially over $1 Billion’s worth of BTC to enter the market. This may lead to severe negative price actions.
  • Large increase in BTC being used in Zimbabwe as citizens look to an alternative currency.
  • Uber in Argentina to accept BTC as payment as the government blocks credit cards being used within the app for fears Uber is taking too much business away from local taxi companies.
  • The World Economic Forum outlines over 65 Blockchain use cases for environmental protection. They include  “new financing models for environmental outcomes, more efficient and cleaner decentralised systems.” As well as “see through supply chains, sustainable fundraising sources and carbon markets. “
  • Tezos launches its Mainet today. As a result XTZ’s price has risen over 30% in the last week.
  • In the past 10 days ICO’s have sold 160k in Ether, this affirming ETH’s negative price actions.
  • CEO of Galaxy Mike Novogratz states that the crypto market has seen its bottom.
  • On the other hand the CCO of BitPay has stated that Alt’s won’t recover and that BTC will be the dominant crypto in 2019.  

GlobalBlock Analyst Comment

We as a brokerage strongly feel that the future of cryptocurrency over the next year will lie in Bitcoin. Much of the noise that goes around the market in terms of institutions entering the space surrounds that of Bitcoin. E.g. there are Bitcoin Futures, Bitcoin Bonds. Bitcoin Mutual Funds and the latest financial product that people are expecting is a Bitcoin ETF.

Bitcoin is tried, tested and has a large community supporting it. Come the start of the new year it will be 10 yrs since the first genesis block was mined. As Bitcoin is decentralised and has no underlying enterprise behind it, the SEC has deemed it a currency not a security, meaning the regulation behind it is positive.

It’s been proved that as a currency it can be more stable than fiat currencies controlled by central bodies for example, the Turkish Lira and the Argentine Peso.  How long will it be when central banks start hedging their own currencies against Bitcoin.?

When can we expect commodities like Gold and Brent Crude to start having BTC pairings as emerging markets would rather deal in BTC than USD? We’re bullish on a decentralised future and so far all the signs point towards BTC. As Alt coin projects still appear have a long way to go before the points mentioned above are achieved- Bitcoin is the currency of the immediate future..

Have a great week.

Michael Watford & the GlobalBlock Team