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Weekly Crypto Brief 26th November

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Weekly Comment:

It has been another pretty tough week in the crypto markets as prices continue to come under pressure, mainly lead by Bitcoin.  As prices, continue to come lower, more sell orders are being triggered in the market compounding the pain for many holding crypto-assets. Whereas last week, there was some confusion surrounding the real drivers for the downward move, as another week passes- the possible ongoing Bitcoin Cash fork and its problems continue to dominate.  Interestingly,  Peter Brandt a prominent trader and technical analyst stated that: “BTC is entering the stage of its life cycle when stale and weak money capitulates and strong hands accumulate strategically” which for those that know and follow him could be interpreted as a relatively bullish comment for the long-term!

There is also some small solace to be taken that it is not just Crypto that continues to come under pressure with FAANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google) all now firmly in bear territory having shed over $1 trillion of value from their yearly highs meaning they are collectively down more than 20%. It would appear that the end to the 2018 may well be bearish for many rather than just those invested in crypto.

Finally- it is worth mentioning the settlement that has just taken place by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup who are going to pay a combined $182.5million to settle the accusations that they conspired to rig interbank interest rates.  With this settlement and the LIBOR scandal of 2008 (which resulted in billions of dollars of fines), it serves to remind us that whilst many complain about crypto prices and the ongoing perceived manipulation of prices, this is nothing new when compared with older, more established markets that still to this day are open to abuse.

Fingers crossed for a positive end to November!

Have a great week.

Past Week Talking Points:

  • According to the Wall St. Journal, the U.S state of Ohio will shortly become the first to accept Bitcoin as tax payment.  The move will be available to businesses with plans to extend to individual taxpayers at a later date
  • In an interview with the FT, Mike Novogratz (ex Goldmans and founder of Galaxy Digital) has stated that he expects to see prices start to move positively again next year and that “this year has been challenging”.  Novogratz hopes that Galaxy will become “the Goldman Sachs of Crypto” and admitted that “it sucks to build a business in a bear market”
  • In the UK, new figures are showing that the City watchdog is stepping up its investigations into Cryptocurrency businesses according to the Telegraph
  • Trezor- the company that manufactures and sells cold storage solutions in the form of a hardware wallet for Crypto has warned consumers that fakes are being sold on the open market which would leave consumers and their wallet contents exposed to potential theft.
BTC Price:  $4,007

Last 7 Days: -25% 1month:  -38%    12months: -55%

BTC Commentary:

The last week of trading was pretty disastrous for many coins, with Bitcoin and its variants very much falling into that bracket. Bitcoin Cash and its ongoing “hard-fork” woes continued, Bitcoin Gold slumped 30% and Bitcoin (BTC) lost another 25% of its value in the 7-day period.  (A move that worryingly materialized without high volumes).
If you look at the previous four declines in the price of Bitcoin, the average from the high to the low was 85.3%*.  The current downtrend in Bitcoin which began on the 17th December 2017 which to date represents a move of almost 82%.  Inevitably this begs the question as to how much lower it is going to go?

*Sources: Factor LLC, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Mt Gox, bitcoincharts.

BTC Volume:  
19th November:  $4,603,066,720 (BTC price of $5,363)
26th November:  $6,680,529,583 (BTC price of $4,007)
45% increase in trading volume in the last 7 days

Last 7 Days Big Market Movers:

Agrolot                                         AGLT    UP 209%      Price: $0.22
Gold Bits Coin                             GBC      UP 144%      Price: $0.46
Octoin Coin                                 OCC      UP 116%      Price: $0.62

ETH Price: $114.89

Last 7 Days: -27%  1month: -43% 12months: -75%

In the last seven days, Ethereum has been as low as $98 which represents a fall of almost 79% in price to where the market was a year ago. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has suffered a far steeper drop in price which is giving technical analysts more of a headache when it comes to predicting what comes next for the (still) 3rd largest cryptocurrency in the market. It would appear that irrespective of your standpoint (i.e. trader, analyst or investor) on Ethereum, huge amounts of caution currently prevail with nobody really willing to make the first move until the future perhaps becomes a little clearer. All in all, a long consolidation period is perhaps on the horizon now, and with retail investors most likely scarred by recent activity, any bullish upturn will have to be driven by institutional demand.

Market Cap. Dominance:

BTC: 54%
XRP: 11.71%
ETH: 9.23%
Other ALT-Coins: 25.06%